AUD/USD Discussion & Chart Share

AUD/USD forecasts and predictions, chart sharing, comments, and questions.

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AUD/USD Weekly Analysis 21-08-2023

Here’s a breakdown of the key points of the previous week and a trading idea:

  1. Bearish Week for AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a bearish week against the US Dollar (USD), with the currency pair opening at 0.6494 and closing at 0.6402. This decline in the exchange rate is indicative of the AUD weakening relative to the USD.

  2. USD Strength: The USD’s continued strength contributed to the bearish sentiment in the AUD/USD pair. A stronger USD can lead to downward pressure on other currencies, including the AUD.

  3. Concerns About China’s Financial Situation: The situation in China negatively affected the Australian Dollar. China’s financial results fell below expectations, leading to concerns that Chinese companies might have difficulty repaying their debt obligations and loans. Since Australia has strong economic ties with China, developments in the Chinese economy can impact the AUD.

  4. Neutral Central Bank Announcements: The Australian central bank’s minutes were somewhat neutral, indicating that future actions would depend on economic data and results. Central bank decisions and statements can have a significant impact on a currency’s value.

  5. Unemployment Rate Increase: Australia saw an increase in the unemployment rate in July compared to the previous month, rising to 3.7% from 3.5%. A higher unemployment rate can be viewed as a negative economic indicator and can affect the value of the AUD.

Trade idea: Potential for Upside Reactions: Despite the recent decline, there’s a possibility of an upward reaction for the AUD/USD pair. There might be opportunities for buy positions in the coming week, to test the 0.654 support area, now turned resistance.

AUD/USD Weekly Analysis 28-08-2023

Let’s look at the recent performance of the AUD/USD pair and the factors influencing it. Here’s a recap of the key points:

  1. Neutral Week: Last week, the AUD/USD pair had a neutral performance, opening and closing around 0.64. This suggests that there was limited movement in the exchange rate during the week.

  2. Australian Dollar Resilience: Despite the significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar managed to hold its ground without experiencing a decline. This resilience could be attributed to factors that favor the Australian dollar.

  3. Commodity Prices: The Australian dollar is closely tied to commodity prices, and the rise in gold and copper prices has been beneficial for the currency. Australia is a major exporter of commodities, and higher prices can support its currency.

  4. Challenges for AUD/USD: Despite this, we must acknowledge that the overall downward trend for the AUD/USD pair has not changed. This could be due to ongoing economic pressures in China and a less-than-positive economic picture in Australia.

  5. PMI Indicators: The highlight was that all PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) indicators announced for Australia last week were below expectations and below the critical 50 level, indicating contraction in economic activity.

  6. Upcoming Economic Announcements: Economic announcements from the United States and China, as well as Australian retail sales and inflation data, will play a significant role in the AUD/USD pair’s movement in the current week.

Preference for Buy Positions: The trading preference for the current week is buy positions, and as mentioned on the previous weekly outlook, a TP to test the 0.654 support area, now turned resistance.