SPX (S&P500) Discussion & Chart Share

SPX (S&P500) forecasts and predictions, chart sharing, comments, and questions.

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SPX Weekly Chart - S&P 500 (US500, SPX500) (NYSE / United States)

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S&P500 Weekly Analysis 21-08-2023

  1. S&P 500 Performance: The S&P 500 index closed last week at 4,370 points, experiencing a loss of 2.10%. This indicates a bearish trend in the market.

  2. Fed’s Minutes: The Federal Reserve (Fed) released minutes that revealed concerns among its members about inflation and the possibility that interest rate hikes may continue. This information likely contributed to the market’s negative sentiment.

  3. China’s Economic Deterioration: China’s economic situation has worsened, with negative results in industrial production and retail sales. Additionally, some Chinese companies are struggling to meet their debt obligations. These issues in China are causing concern in the financial markets.

  4. Rise in Bond Yields: Bond yields have been rising, with the U.S. 10-year rate reaching 4.25%. This can provide an attractive alternative for investors seeking higher yields with relatively lower risk compared to stocks.

  5. Jackson Hole Symposium: The Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual economic conference, is set to start, with particular attention on Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Market participants will be watching for any announcements or statements that could impact market sentiment.

TRADE IDEA:
Short positions: Given the recent market decline and the potential for further uncertainty, short positions may be preferred this week. As we can see from the chart above, the downtrend seems to be in full swing and short positions with TPs to 4322 and 4250 might play well this week.

S&P500 Weekly Analysis 28-08-2023

Let’s look at the recent performance of the US SP500 index and the factors influencing it. Here’s a recap of the key points:

  1. SP500 Performance: The US SP500 index closed the previous week at 4,406 points, recording a profit of 0.82%. However, it experienced bearish trends earlier in the week before rebounding.

  2. Nvidia’s Impressive Results: Nvidia reported impressive second-quarter 2023 earnings, surpassing expectations with earnings of $2.70 per share (adjusted) compared to an expected $2.09 per share. The revenue of $13.51 billion also exceeded the anticipated $11.22 billion. Nvidia’s strong performance was attributed to its data center business, which includes AI chips like the A100 and H100 used in artificial intelligence applications.

  3. Optimism in AI and Technology: Nvidia’s robust results initially sparked optimism among investors about the potential of AI and technology sectors to drive economic growth. These technologies, including AI applications like ChatGPT, were seen as key drivers of the company’s success.

  4. Jerome Powell’s Hawkish Tone: Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium led to concerns in the markets. Investors interpreted his remarks as signaling another potential interest rate hike, which could reduce liquidity due to more expensive borrowing costs.

  5. Late-Week Bullish Reaction: Despite the initial concerns over Powell’s speech, there was a late-week bullish reaction, allowing the SP500 to close the week with a positive performance. This suggests that market sentiment remains sensitive to central bank actions and monetary policy.

  6. Upcoming Economic Events: The upcoming week is expected to bring increased volatility due to several important economic releases, including GDP data, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, and nonfarm payrolls (NFPs). Additionally, the manufacturing results from China will be closely watched, as they can provide insights into the global economic landscape.

TRADE IDEA:
Consideration of Long Positions: Given the potential for increased volatility and the mixed market sentiment, long positions might be preferable for this week. This decision should depend on individual investment strategies and risk tolerance.

S&P500 Weekly Analysis 04-09-2023

As suggested last week, long positions were preferred and in fact the S&P500 had a mild bullish week. Let’s look at the recent performance of the US S&P500 index and the factors influencing it. Here’s a recap of the key points:

  1. The US S&P 500 index saw bullish trends and closed the previous week with gains of 2.50%.

  2. The market responded positively to the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) announcement, which indicated a weak situation in the US job market. This was seen as a factor that could influence the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause or end its cycle of interest rate hikes.

  3. The Fed had been raising interest rates to combat high inflation, but the market perceives that the Fed is cautious about pushing the economy into a recession, especially with inflation moderating to around 3%.

  4. While the GDP announcement was positive, it was below market expectations, reinforcing the idea that the Fed might be more cautious with rate hikes.

  5. Positive Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) data was released on Friday, which halted the strong uptrend.

  6. The overall sentiment in the markets seems to be positive, with no major negative news expected for the week ahead, except for the services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data.

TRADE IDEA:
Based on this analysis, the positive sentiment may continue, and there may be opportunities for long positions in the market during the coming week, with a possible TP to 4585 and in extension to 4610.